Peisley

International Centre for Cruise Research
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Abstracts

Peisley, T. "The North American cruise market," Travel & Tourism Analyst, 1998, No. 4, 1-22

Although current high load factors are not likely to be maintained, a surge in cruise ship capacity targeting the North American cruise market - US$12 billion-worth involving 39 confirmed ships with more to come - in the next four years will lead to an increase in demand due to corresponding marketing activity. There is particular optimism about the potential of the North American market, as cruising is appealing to an audience becoming broader in terms of age, income and marital status. Other developments include the trend towards shorter cruises, and ports increasing their capacity to cater to the new ships currently on order. The Caribbean, however, is likely to maintain its dominance in terms of popularity, in spite of attempts to diversify and controversy regarding environmental matters. Such issues are also influencing operations in the second most popular destination, Alaska, while political considerations are hindering the tapping of the potential of Hawaii and Cuba as destinationsand embarkation points. Mexico, Los Angeles and the US East Coast, meanwhile, show considerable promise as destinations and also as source markets. In terms of the industry's initiatives, there have been moves towards buying up older vessels in order to refurbish them yet maintain the classic style, and also towards developing six-star-standard vessels. Overall, the industry is in good shape with healthy bookings now - but the real test will be when the capacity increases take effect in 1999-2000.

Peisley, T. "The cruise ship industry to the 21st century," Travel & Tourism Analyst, 1995, No. 2, 4-25

The cruise industry has been one of tourism's major success stories in recent years and, despite recession, has forged ahead at a pace far greater than for the industry as a whole. Now ever larger sums are being invested in new ships and 1995 sees the beginning of a record $9000 million commitment. By 1998 an additional 46 000 berths at least will be on the market. However, developments over the next five years will not be without their pitfalls. Most of the investment is coming from the three major cruise lines, Carnival, Royal Caribbean and P&O, and they look set to increase their domination of the industry. Meanwhile projects for market growth indicate a decline in the rate of expansion to just 5% or less. With the enormous increase in capacity, the ever larger ships and the limited number of viable cruising areas for these larger ships, it is questionable as to whether the industry will adapt to the changing circumstances over the next five years. This study looks at the strategies being adopted by the main players and the behaviour patterns of the main cruise markets in North America and Europe, as well as other newly emerging markets. By the turn of the century there are likely to be around 8 million cruise ship passengers. There seems little doubt that, despite the fact that there will be more lines and brands than currently exist, the control of the industry providing them, and to an extent the way in which the industry moves forward, will be in the hands of just a few major companies.

Peisley, T. "The Asia Pacific cruise market," Travel & Tourism Analyst, 1993, No. 5, 6-19

The cruise ship market, dominated as it is by North Americans cruising in the Caribbean, urgently needs to find new locations. The Asia Pacific region looks, on paper to be the most promising, but the explosive growth that some would like to see has not happened. This study examines why this should be. With the exception of the (fairly small) mid-market cruises from Australian ports, most other regional cruise markets have been sluggish. Although the number of Japanese taking cruises has doubled in five years, the numbers involved remain small. Singapore has made great efforts to become the home port base for the region's cruise industry, but, again, growth has been slow. This study ascribes the disappointing progress to a lack of infrastructure, inherent geographical and climatic weaknesses, and a lack of the appropriate image for cruising in many markets. Also, air access to the region from the major North American cruise markets is a problem due to both time and cost factors. Cruising should develop in the Asia Pacific region, but this study finds that, to do so, investment by the major lines is needed. This is likely to happen later rather than sooner in the 1990s.